Update: 4:45pm

Many observers believe that Iran has been eager to talk a lot over the last few months because it is feeling the bite of sanctions now more than ever, and has a government full of internal strife.

But that certainly doesn’t mean they are ready to cut a deal with the P5+1.  And expectations for the Istanbul talks were pretty low from the start.

Michael Adler of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars said, “There’s increasing pressure on Iran—sanctions, sabotage, and even assassinations.  So they are under pressure, but Iranians resist pressure very well.  They say they are not going to compromise.”

The talks in Istanbul went on all of Friday and into the night.  Despite the fact that Iran claims sanctions have not hurt the country and that is economy is as robust as ever, they do try to make their removal a condition for moving talks past a certain point.

Western diplomats have stressed the need to continue these talks with Iran as the best option available, but that they do work in tandem with pressure, which is sanctions.

By midnight Friday, the talks did not appear to be producing any sort of breakthrough.  Though an official from the Iranian delegation at midday said he thought the tone of the talks was positive, and progress was being made.

The talk of confidence building measures has been part of the mix, because Iran mistrusts the West just as much as the West mistrusts Iran.

That is why the fuel swap idea would have been useful.  By taking Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium overseas and turning it into a very specific fuel that could be used for medical applications Iran needs—the P5+1 would have felt confident Iran could not divert its uranium to a weapons program, and Iran could have built some trust by receiving crucial fuel from the international community.

But that offer never took off—it was said to have been blocked long ago, by Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Resuscitating that deal is on the table at these talks.  But Iran’s quantities of enriched uranium are so much vaster than they were in 2009 when the deal was proposed that details would have to be changed and Iran so far has not indicated a willingness to do that.

Mark Fitzpatrick, a proliferation expert from London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies said “Setbacks to Iran’s nuclear program means there is more time for negotiations, but so far the time gained is being frittered away.  It’s high time the talks got serious.”

Update: 7:15am

P5+1 or E3+3 talks with Iran began again today in Istanbul, Turkey.  While Turkey is the host for the talks, it is the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Iran sitting around the table discussing Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran apparently felt comfortable coming to Turkey because of the good relations between the two countries.  And Turkey has become an increasingly important player in resolving regional issues.  But the Turks are not part of the actual nuclear discussions here.

The initial rumblings we are getting out of the talks ,which just had a short break for lunch, is positive, but it is early to judge the level of success they may or may not have achieved.  Generally, expectations on the side of the P5+1 are very low going into the talks.  But the group is more unified than before.  And there is a sense that Iran’s economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically in the last year as a result of sanctions and its isolation that its position may be weaker than ever before.

But likely not weak enough for Iran to make any concessions on a scale that would cause sanctions to be loosened or softened.

The last significant breakthrough at talks came in 2009 when Iran agreed in principle to ship  the bulk of its enriched uranium abroad  to get reconfigured into fuel rods for a reactor that makes medical isotopes in Tehran.  It would have been a technically useful move, and a confidence building measure, because it would have served a real need in Iran, and ensured its stockpile of uranium could not have been diverted to a weapons program.

But reportedly Iran’s Supreme Leader ultimately stopped the deal.

Diplomats here are trying to resuscitate that deal.  They are also attempting to get Iran to agree to measures that would allay the international community’s concerns that it is planning to build a bomb.  If those two things happen, these talks will be seen as a success and more will likely follow.  But even if that is the case, the p5+1 is far away from its original demands years ago that Iran simply stop enriching uranium altogether.