There has been a lot of smoke coming out of Lebanon. Hezbollah’s ministers walked away from the shaky coalition government turning Prime Minister Saad Hariri into the interim Prime Minister. The UN tribunal prosecutor announced the sealed indictments against the alleged killers of Hariri’s father have been passed to the Judge and Hezbollah’s leader has continued to make fiery statements about what he and his heavily armed militia will do to anybody who dares to name their members as the assassins. But with all the smoke, there is no fire. Yet.

A few months ago, a dispute over a parking spot between Hezbollah members and those from a rival militia ended in running gun battle that the army tried to quell but only ended with Hezbollah’s leader telling his membership to calm down. It appeared a parking spot wasn’t worth a civil war. Now things are slightly different and the stakes are far higher. American backed Saad Harir has refused Hezbollah’s demands to disavow the tribunals findings and says he wants the world to know who killed his father. Hezbollah has increased its rhetoric even saying it will “cut off the hand” of anybody who dares to try and arrest one its members. While Hariri technically control’s the Lebanese Army, general consensus says Hezbollah could take over the country in 48hrs—that counts 24hrs for them to drink coffee before. Lets just hope nobody gets a parking ticket.