Lebanese internal politics can often resemble a high stakes poker game and Hezbollah just tossed a bunch of chips in the pot. The Shiite Muslim militia group withdrew its ministers from a unity government forcing the collapse of prime minister Saad Hariri coalition. This is about as delicate a situation as you get and while the streets of Beirut were quiet overnight there is no guarantee that the country won’t erupt into a civil war.

Right now the world and other parties in Lebanon are waiting to see what Hezbollah does next.

Last night they withdrew from the government in protest over the UN tribunal charged with figuring out who was behind the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hezbollah is widely believed to have carried out the car bombing but also said there would be severe consequences if the tribunal names any of their members.

The puppeteer in this is the Iranian president that controls and finances Hezbollah. The Iranian President visited Lebanon a couple of months ago to huge and adoring crowds and current prime minister Hariri recently went to Teheran to try and smooth things over. That did not work so well.

The Hezbollah ministers resigned while the Prime Minister was meeting with President Obama. it was clearly meant to embarrass both of them. The United States has said it stands behind Hariri and the tribunal but its unclear how much political and personal capital Hariri is willing to risk to see the results of the investigation into his father’s death.