Members of the Lebanese army patrol in front of a poster of slain former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.

Lebanon is waiting.

The results of one of the world’s most potentially explosive murder investigations — the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri  — will emerge in the coming months.

The potential instability that could result following the possibility of a Lebanese-based group or individual being indicted is being addressed by all regional players.

The five-time-premier and 22 others were killed in February 2005 when Hariri’s motorcade was hit by massive explosions in downtown Beirut.

For the past five years the finger has been pointed first at Syria, then at Hezbollah, and most recently at Israel. Hezbollah launched its own preemptive campaign to discredit the U.N. appointed Special Tribunal for Lebanon or STL and blames Israel while accusing Washington and France of meddling.

An extraordinary summit took place in Beirut in July, whereby the King of Saudi Arabia and President Assad of Syria met with Lebanon’s leadership in an attempt to calm tensions over the expected indictments.

“It’s clear from all the leading players in the region that Hezbollah indictments are coming soon,” said Beirut-based Paul Salem of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.

“But there is now a deep agreement between the Syrians and the Saudis. The message from Syria to Hezbollah was that ‘Damascus is back. We have got your back, there is no need to micromanage,’ and from Saudi Arabia – that they and now Syria are the strongest protector of the Prime Minister. The summit showed there is a new form of regional management. Syria is back but with a Saudi brotherhood,” said Salem.

Hariri’s son Saad is the current Prime Minister.  He finds himself in the impossible position of honoring the internationally and Lebanese – sanctioned process that seeks to find his own father’s murderer, but also heading a fragile coalition government that includes Hezbollah ministers as part of his own cabinet.

“Hariri has to square the circle where he saves face, but distances himself from the Tribunal,” said Salem.

Hezbollah appears to be exerting pressure on Hariri to distance himself from the STL and Syria is publicly seeking to discredit it.

Last week Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem said, “The International Tribunal is not seeking to reveal the truth but to achieve political goals.”

“Hezbollah has made it clear the tribunal is a make or break issue for them in Lebanon,” said Salem.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasarallah has given a series of speeches dismissing the STL and calling it an “Israeli Project.”  He has presented the tribunal’s investigators with Hezbollah collected evidence, mostly in DVD form (which includes undated Israeli drone surveillance footage of Beirut) that he claims makes Israel accountable.

STL chief prosecutor, Canadian Daniel Bellemare,  told the the news website Now Lebanon that media reports speculating that arrests were imminent were wrong. Bellemare said the indictment is still in draft form and won’t come in September.

Bellemare also dismissed reports that the STL was under political or international diplomatic pressure to either speed up its process or to compromise its impartiality.

In the interview Bellemare did say that he would no longer pursue the avenue of so called ‘false witnesses.’

Lebanon’s Justice Department is left to compile its own report on the previously named prime suspects Mohammad Siddiq and Hussam Hussam.

The Lebanese legal system itself faces the reality that under international law the government should carry out its own arrests of anyone based in Lebanon that is accused by the STL.

Sources close to the investigation say a prospective trial could set an international legal precedent where those indicted could be tried in absentia.  They say that there is a scenario where the defendants might never have to take the stand.

Lebanon’s Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar on Thursday signed a Memorandum of Understanding to cooperate fully with the Hague-based Defence team that will act for whomever is accused. Najjar told Fox News that as a career lawyer and legal professor, he trusts the rule of law.

“We will play by the rules. I do not fear the tribunal,” said Najjar.