The tides seem to be turning in the Gulf oil spill disaster. BP sent word early this morning that the static kill is working—drilling mud is pushing oil and gas back down into the reservoir. Now teams must decide whether to pump cement down into the Macondo well. Either way, National Incident Commander Thad Allen has stressed that work on two nearby relief wells will continue, and one of them will be to execute a “bottom kill,” in which mud and cement will be injected into the bedrock 2 1/2 miles below the sea floor. The wells should be completed and the Macondo well should be completely sealed in the next couple weeks.

In the past couple days, we’ve also received a firm estimate on how much oil actually escaped the well— about 5 million barrels. But today the White House’s top environmental advisor Carol Browner made the rounds on the morning talk shows with some surprising news—most of the oil, 75% she says, is gone. The National Incident Command released a report titled in part “What Happened to the Oil?”

According the report, of the 4.9 million barrels spilled into the Gulf:

- 25% was burned, skimmed or collected from the wellhead

- 25% naturally evaporated or dissolved

- 24% was “dispersed” (either naturally or chemically) and became microscopic droplets.

The remaining 26%, the report says “…is either on or just below the surface as light sheen and weathered tar balls, has washed  ashore or been collected from the shore, or is buried in sand and sediments.”

This has local government officials are worried this will become a launching point for a major pullback reduction of spill response resources. St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis told us that even if the report is right — and he hopes it is — 26% of 4.9 million barrels is still a whole lot of oil. Davis is worried about the oil that’s underwater and what a storm in the Gulf might churn up.