Despite the potential of a pair of ethics trials for Democratic members of Congress in the fall, University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says questionable ethics are not likely to tip the midterm election results in one party’s favor or another, but the nation’s slow economic recovery might.

Appearing on America’s News Headquarters Saturday, Sabato said the allegations swirling around Congressman Charlie Rangel (D-NY) and Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA) were unlikely to be the definitive factor in the November midterms.

“It’s an embarrassment, that’s obviously true,” Sabato said. “And when you have more than one it attracts the public’s attention. But to be blunt about it, I think most people are pretty cynical and they simply assume that a certain percentage of politicians are crooked, so this is not news to most Americans.”

Instead, Sabato said, the key to November will be the economy.

“The most important thing that happened this week was that slow economic growth figure – the gross domestic product figure – because it nearly guarantees unemployment is going to be high all the way through the election. The economy is the black hole sucking in all available light in this election.”

The most recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll supports this. In a survey of registered voters taken July 27-28, 57 percent said the economy was extremely important to their vote.

“We’re looking at a classic midterm election that is about message-sending to the President and the Congress,” Sabato said. “To me that means only one of two things – substantial Republican gains, or very substantial Republican gains.”