Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash, has quietly risen through the ranks and is now the fourth most powerful member of the U.S. Senate. She has easily won re-election twice since her surprising victory in 1992. In her most recent contest, Murray handily beat Republican Congressman George Nethercutt 55%-43%. But if the early polls are accurate, the senator could be in serious trouble.

Washington’s primary will be held August 17th. It is an unconventional “top two primary,” which means the top two vote getters advance to the general election regardless of party. Murray’s challengers include Republican Dino Rossi and Tea Party favorite Clint Didier.

Having run two high-profile campaigns for governor in 2004 and 2008, Rossi is a well-established candidate in Washington State, though his detractors suggest that he is too well-established in light of his back-to-back losses to current Governor Christine Gregoire. Rossi lost the first race in 2004 by only 129 votes after three recounts, and lost the 2008 rematch by 6%. Rossi’s supporters note, however, that despite the losses, Rossi significantly outperformed the Republican presidential candidate with whom he shared a ballot, indicating that his supporters include John Kerry and Barack Obama voters. He ran eight points better than President Bush in 2004 and eleven points better than John McCain in 2008.

But Rossi sees a much different political landscape in 2010. Incumbents have already proven to be in jeopardy this cycle, as evidenced by the defeat of long time incumbents in West Virginia, Utah, and Pennsylvania. The most recent Rasmussen poll of the likely head-to-head race between Murray and Rossi has Rossi leading 48% to 45%. Rossi, the former state Senate leader, says he has never enjoyed the luxury of having the political winds at his back.

Former Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance says Rossi has a good chance if the anti-incumbent wave across the nation is big enough. Washington State has provided upsets in those upheaval years. In 1994, President Clinton’s first mid-term election and the year the Republican Party took back the House of Representatives, Democratic Speaker of the House Tom Foley was defeated in his eastern Washington District by George Nethercutt.

But in order to reach that head-to-head matchup with Murray, Rossi must first defeat fellow Republican and former N.F.L. player Clint Didier. Didier played several years with the Washington Redskins as a wide receiver where he won two Super Bowl rings. After retiring from football, he returned to his roots in Franklin County, Washington, buying land and farming alfalfa. The 6-foot-5 Didier has never run for office and it shows in the lack of campaign organization. Didier, despite a recent poll that shows him receiving only 5% in a three-way matchup between himself, Murray, and Rossi, is not about to concede the primary to Rossi. He has been endorsed by former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and Rep. Ron Paul,R-Texas.

Senator Murray is not to be taken lightly. Whomever ends up taking on Murray will face an incumbent who has been very successful in directing federal spending back to her home state. Rossi counters that she has been too successful, attacking the federal spending as pork barrel spending that has contributed to runaway deficits. Murray also enjoys the support of many special interest groups in Washington State, including powerful unions that can spend heavily on the race in support of the incumbent.

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