Iran
Views on the London Times Document
December 15, 2009 - 5:20 PM | by: Amy KelloggThe London Times obtained a document from an unnamed intelligence source which shows Iran has been working on making a detonator for a nuclear bomb. The project is, according to this document, a four-year undertaking, meant to begin in 2007. The Times correspondent who got the document, Catherine Philp, won’t say more about its origins, but having shown it to some nuclear weapons experts and different intelligence agencies and international organizations, and gotten feedback from them, she believes that it is genuine. Renowned former weapons inspector David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security worked with Philp closely in her analysis of the document. No governments have publicly confirmed the veracity of the document.
She told Fox News that the document is an internal report from within the Iranian military program that outlines plans to test a neutron initiator, which is the device that triggers a nuclear bomb.
Philp added that the document talks about uranium deuteride, which is a neutron source that has no other use than that of setting off a bomb.
Uranium deuteride leaves traces of uranium behind, so the document describes ways to substitute another substance in initial tests so as not to leave “smoking gun” residue behind. Philp said the substance “would react exactly the same in the test ride as uranium deuteride. You have to use high explosives in this experiment. If you did that with uranium, the explosion could be detected but there would be traces of uranium left which would be highly incriminating if the outside world were to catch wind of it. So the document describes using the substitute substance to test run it without leaving those incriminating traces of uranium.”
Philp said, “What’s interesting about the document is there are numerous references to trying to hide things. Where do you locate experiments? How can you compartmentalize them so the overall picture of the program is not immediately clear.”
Iran has insists the document is false.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said, “We have managed to domesticate nuclear science in Iran and are seeking to fulfil our requirements and are taking steps on this path. In order to exert pressure on us, they fabricate such scenarios against our people which are not worthy of attention.”
Mehmanparast went on to say that certain countries are angry that “the Iranian people are defending their rights and have made undeniable progress.”
Senior Fellow for Non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Mark Fitzpatrick, said about the document leaked to the Times, “This is very significant, mainly because of the timing. If it is all true, it indicates that Iran did not stop nuclear weapons development work in 2003, as the U.S. intelligence agencies had concluded a couple years ago. It suggests Iran in fact has been working on it as recently as 2007 and the documents, if true, to me show no other purpose than nuclear weapons development.”
Fitzpatrick added that if this document is genuine, it makes it much harder to pursue the diplomatic track with Iran. He praises the efforts of the Obama Administration to date, to work with Iran in resolving the nuclear dispute.
“I think President Obama has been admirably flexible and imaginative in trying to find a way forward with Iran. On October 1st, his negotiators offered Iran a way to build confidence by exchanging Iran’s stockpile of low enriched uranium for fuel for their Tehran research reactor for medical purposes. That offer is still on the table, as is the offer by the European Union countries—Britain, France and Germany—to supply advanced nuclear technology and other forms of economic and political assistance if they were to change course. I think all of these offers will remain on the table.”
He is speaking about the deal, as yet not accepted by Iran, to send much of its low enriched uranium abroad to be further enriched and encased into fuel rods that could be used in its medical isotope manufacturing facility.
President Obama’s deadline for determining whether or not diplomacy can lead to resolution of the nuclear issue with Iran is the end of the year.
As that approaches, the perpetual debate about whether or not Israel might launch a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities continues to loom.
Fitzpatrick said, “Sometime in 2010, Iran will get very close to that line of being able to produce a nuclear weapon and then Israel’s decision makers will have to think very seriously and weigh all the consequences. It’s not an easy choice at all. There are devastating consequences to launching military action, but Iran having the a nuclear weapon also has devastating consequences.”
Fitzpatrick still thinks Iran, if it does in fact have the intention to build a nuclear weapon, could be dissuaded from doing so.
I asked Catherine Philp if she thinks the document she obtained is a smoking gun, in terms of implicating Iran in an attempt to build a bomb.
She said, “Everyone wants to avoid the term ‘smoking gun’, particularly after the Iraq intelligence fiasco in 2003. No, it’s not a smoking gun because that suggests a weapon has been used. I think we are talking about having all the components ready so you could be at a stage where you could build a bomb pretty quickly if you decided to so in that regard it’s a little like a gun that has been taken apart, disassembled, all the bits are there, but you could put it back together very quickly.”



























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