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Abbas Quits: Why You Should Care
November 10, 2009 - 12:27 PM | by: Michael Tobin
It is easy to see why Mahmoud Abbas keeps throwing in the towel. It hasn’t gone so well for him since he took over the Palestinian Authority with the promise of leading Palestinians down the moderate path to statehood and dignity. His Fatah party lost elections to Hamas and lost control over parliament. Then he lost the Gaza strip in an armed takeover by Hamas.
All the while, Hamas continued to gain ground by choosing the radical path. They kidnapped a soldier and forced Israel to negotiate on their terms. They won a prisoner release and the support of the Palestinian public.
The final humiliation was delivered with a one two punch by both Israel and the US. When President Obama gave his speech in Cairo calling for a settlement freeze. Abbas saw that as his chance to hook his cart to the wagon of a popular US president and come out looking strong. He issued his ultimatum: no talks without a freeze. He failed to predict that Benjamin Netanyahu would disregard the US president and keep building settlements.
My brothers work in commercial real estate. They once shared with me a technique used when negotiations get hung up. “You isolate the weakest party, beat him into submission and make the deal go through.” And that is exactly what the Obama administration did to President Abbas. They forced him to eat his ultimatum and sit down to the 3-way summit in New York while voters back in Ramallah mocked him for his weakness.
Now, Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the luxurious position of being able to stand before the Jewish Federation of North America and dismiss the settlement freeze as a precondition. “It’s high time that we stop negotiating about the negotiations. Let’s get on with it. Let’s move.” He said. “My goal is to achieve a permanent peace treaty with the Palestinians and soon.” Netanyahu says this knowing that President Abbas painted himself into a corner. Abbas cannot agree to talks while Israel keeps building homes for Jewish settlers where the Palestinians want to build a homeland. Even if he could do that, Abbas can no longer negotiate for the Gaza strip.
From Abbas’ perspective, quitting seems like a reasonable option. He can’t fight Israel and he can’t get a break. He can’t beat Hamas, which behaves like a group inmates fighting for control of the prison. He can’t count on the Obama administration to do anything other than fail him even when Abbas gets on board with the President’s own call for a freeze.
According to reports, Abbas told his aides, “What will be will be, that’s not my business anymore.” He has resigned before. Usually, throngs of politicians and supporters come running to coerce him to return to office as the Palestinians’ only hope.
This time, they think he means to quit. “I am 95% sure he will do that.” Says Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, a one time Presidential candidate himself. In fact, many are ready to let the whole Palestinian Authority fall apart in his wake. “The PA is irrelevant to the future of the Palestinian people as a whole,” Writes Saree Makdisi, a Palestinian expat teaching at UCLA. “The demise of Abbas, and with him, hopefully, the PA and the illusion of a two state solution opens up the possibility of a one state solution.”
That’s right, He wrote: one state solution. That idea is gaining ground on the Palestinian street but it is a non-starter in Israel because it would threaten the Jewish majority in the Jewish state.
So, another option is just a collapse of all Palestinian institutions. Then Israel is obligated to step in and start running everything from checkpoints to sewers. That costs money and this is where it becomes the problem of the American taxpayer.
First of all, the 200 million American tax dollars given to the PA this year, will disappear. Then, you look at the 3 billion dollars the US gives to Israel every year. Sure, it is money intended for military spending but factor in the cost shift and you would be funding the Israeli soldier directing traffic on the streets of Ramallah.
Chaos and a return to violence would certainly smolder in the ruins of the Abbas Presidency with the potential of flashing into another intifada. “Unless we see a change in the policy of the American administration, this could get worse.” Says Dr. Barghouti. “Freeze the settlements. That’s the only way out.”
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