KABUL, Afghanistan – 36 men and women are vying for Presidency of Afghanistan, but a new public opinion poll suggest it’s a race between just two men – incumbent President Hamid Karzai and former Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.

The U.S. funded poll surveyed 3,556 voting-age Afghans nationwide in mid-July and shows Karzai with 36%, while Dr. Abdullah received 20%. Two other candidates – Ramazan Bashardost and Dr. Ashraf Ghani  – received 7% and 3% respectively.

Twenty percent of voters either refused to answer or said they were still undecided.

Early this summer, most observers believed Karzai would likely cruise to an easy victory on August 20th – the opposition was fractured and Karzai spent the spring successfully courting Afghanistan’s most powerful warlords. He is still the favorite to win, however, in recent weeks Dr Abdullah’s support has grown.

Most analysts believe Karzai will likely face Dr Abdullah in a run off election in October, since neither man is expected to gain the 50% plus one vote needed for a first round win.

Still, both campaigns believe their candidate will win outright in the first round but are also preparing for a run off.

Today, Karzai urged Afghans to take part in the elections despite the growing violence. Several campaign workers have been killed and the Taliban has vowed to attack polling locations around the country.

Despite the risks, 74% of Afghans said they would vote -though in the south, where the violence is the worse that number dropped dramatically.